 Highlights February 2013 In Q4 2012 economic growth slowed down to 0.3% yoy, vs. 0.9% in the first nine months of the year. For the whole 2012 the increase of GDP totalled 0.8%, and thus it fell short of the expectations. The deterioration of the external environment, respectively the reported decline of export of goods and services (1.7% vs. Q4 2011) had a negative contribution to GDP dynamics. Investment was the main engine of economic growth both in the last three months of 2012 and throughout the whole year, rising respectively by 5.6% yoy and 9.6%. The January 2013 inflation rate was in line with our expectations: 0.4% vs. December 2012. Food price dynamics continued being the main inflation driver. In Q4 2012 the unemployment rate reached 12.4%, and the annual average value of the indicator equalled 12.3% – by 0.1 p. p. higher than our forecast. In the first month of 2013 a budget deficit of BGN 536.5 mn (0.7% of Raiffeisen RESEARCH’s GDP forecast for the whole year) was reported. The fiscal reserve decreased to BGN 4.1 bn, after the repayment of principal and interest on the external public debt. In the first month of the current year lending growth remained in negative territory: a decrease of BGN 48.3 mn (0.1%) vs. December. With respect to non-financial enterprises, there was an increase of loans by BGN 46.2 mn(0.1%), while those to households registered a decline of BGN 94.5 mn (0.5%) mom. Our expectations for a continued rise of bad and restructured loans were confirmed. In January they augmented by BGN 56.6 mn (0.6%) and their volume reached BGN 9.7 bn. As a share of total loans (excl. overdraft) they totalled 22.6%. In December the C/A scored an expected deficit equal to EUR 300 mn, but on a cumulative basis for the last four months of 2012 the C/A balance was higher than our forecast. For the whole 2012 the C/A deficit amounted to only EUR 371.4 mn, as the greater part of the trade deficit was compensated by an improvement of the income account and of net transfers. In 2012 a considerable improvement of the financial account was observed. While in the previous two years it ended with negative balances, in 2012 it accumulated a positive flow of EUR 2.1 bn. A significant increase was reported with respect to attracted currency and deposits. According to provisional data, the net inflow of FDI in the country reached EUR 1.2 bn in 2012, but still a positive revision of the value is expected. Archive: 2010 - August, September 2008 - January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October 2007 - May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December. |